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A Real Rally or Summer Fling?

One month an investing career does not make.  But let’s hear it for July.  A comeback of sorts as the market, the S&P 500, rallied a touch better than 9%.  Its best month since November of 2020.

I’m not sure if that’s really saying a lot.  Kind of like saying gas prices have fallen to their lowest levels since last Wednesday.  It’s just not that long ago.

But a win is a win.  And it feels good to see balances heading north for the summer.

The prospect of rising interest rates not coming at us quite as fast and furious as first thought and positive earnings reports from corporate America contributing to the July fireworks.

Not to mention we’re not in a recession after all.  Those two consecutive quarters of negative GDP.  Forget about it.

The Biden administration saved us from that.  Their woke wordsmiths worked overtime to change the definition of a recession.  That definition we’ve been using for decades.  Out.  

There’s a new definition in town.  And two consecutive quarters of negative GDP ain’t it. Doesn’t that make you feel better?

Of course it will when you’re filling up your car with gas.  You’ll remember they told you inflation is transitory.  Yeah, transitory.  A word you could go years without ever using in everyday language.  

They could’ve just said inflation is not permanent, or temporary.  But that would be too clear.  And we’d all realize not true and clearly obvious they’re just making stuff up on the fly.

I’m not making these numbers up.  Not only was the S&P 500 up 9% in July, it pared the year to date pullback to 13%.

The Dow up almost 7% in July.  That leaves it down about 10% on the year.

And NASDAQ 12% better for the month.  But still in bear market territory for the year.

Remember, you’re an investor.  Not a trader or speculator.

As an investor, month to month performance numbers, good or bad, are not your focus.  You know the negative months are transitory,  before the market resumes its permanent upward trend.